SUPER BOWL LIII BETTING TRENDS
LOS ANGELES RAMS vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall
The Rams are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3 points
The UNDER is 4-1 in the Rams last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3 points
The UNDER is 8-3 in New England's last 11 games overall
The OVER is 7-1 in New England's last 8 playoff games
New England is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 playoff games
New England is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games vs. teams with a winning record
New England is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 Super Bowls
New England is 39-17 ATS in its last 56 games overall
1. Focus on Props That Align With Your Goals
If your goal is to build your bankroll, then you'll want to invest with discipline and focus on the props with the most expected value. For you, the Super Bowl is just another game, except there are more props to sort through. You are focused less on prop type and more on prop valuation.
But if your goal is to have fun, then you'll probably want to invest a small amount in lots of longshots across a variety of bets. For instance …
- If you think Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein is going to boot at least a few long, clutch field goals in a close, low-scoring game, then you could bet on him to win the Super Bowl MVP award at +8000.
- If you think the color of the liquid poured on the game-winning coach might be purple, you can bet that at +1000.
- If you think it's likely that Christina Aguilera will sing on "Moves Like Jagger" with Maroon 5, then you can bet +225 that she'll make an appearance during the halftime show.
- If you think Patriots running back Sony Michel could have a big game, you can bet on him at +194 odds to get at least 120 yards rushing.
With lots of bets, you'll be invested in the entire spectacle, and if a few of the longshots hit then you could end the evening with a nice profit.
2. Don't Overextend Your Bankroll
It's easy to think of this one game as an entire weekend of football, and it's tempting to bet larger sums than you normally would because the Super Bowl is your last opportunity for months to bet on the sport, but keep in mind that this is just one game.
Whatever percentage of your bankroll you'd be comfortable investing on props for one game during the regular season is probably the percentage you should use for the Super Bowl. Plus maybe a little more. Because it's the Super Bowl and because there are more props available.
But don't overextend yourself on Super Bowl props. It's just one game. Anything can happen.
3. Be Aware of Correlation
During the regular season, you can play lots of player props throughout a typical week, because you're investing across 13-16 games. Most of your props will be uncorrelated. If you're on the wrong side of one of them, that doesn't mean you'll be wrong on the others.
But, again, the Super Bowl is just one game. So many of the player, team and game props are correlated, even if they don't seem correlated.
Let's say that you bet the over on a whole bunch of Pats passing and receiving player props because you think that quarterback Tom Brady is going to have a massive performance. You might be right, but you also might be wrong, and if Brady has a bad game, the under will hit on not only many of his props but also on those for his receivers.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't invest in player props because of correlation concerns. I'm saying that you should be aware of correlation and either maneuver around it or leverage it in a way that aligns with your goals.
If you're trying to build your bankroll, you'll be cautious when it comes to correlation. You'll look to diversify your action across all different types of props that offer an edge, especially the exotic props that have nothing to do with the action on the field.
If you're looking to have some fun with the props, maybe you'll actually want to make correlated bets so that you can have a bigger payoff if you're right about how the game will unfold.
4. Shop Around at Various Sportsbooks
Even if you're betting on props just for fun, you still want to get the best line possible. Why limit your winning upside by betting a prop at +130 on one book when it's +150 elsewhere?